How to use the board
This is a research tool. It shows what the model expects, what the sportsbooks are pricing, and the defensive matchup behind each player prop. It does not tell you what to bet. You make the call.
1. Pick a game
The slate lists every game this week with the market spread and total. The game view opens with the model's projected score next to the market's numbers and each team's implied points.
2. Read the two defenses
Each defense card shows how that unit plays and what it allows. Read the card for the defense your player is facing.
- Defense types
- Where the unit ranks in each style category for the sport. The 10 highest and 10 lowest teams in each category get a label; the rest are "average".
- Allowed per game
- What the defense gives up per game to each position, with its league rank. Blue = one of the 10 stingiest; amber = one of the 10 most generous. Early in a season, last season's numbers are blended in.
- Coverage mix (NFL)
- How often the defense plays two safeties deep versus one or none, and man versus zone. The thin bar underneath is the league average.
3. Scan the prop board
- Line / Best Over / Best Under
- The most common line across books, and the best price at that line with the book offering it. Other lines shows books hanging a different number.
- Projection
- The model's expected stat for this game.
- Model line
- The line the model would set itself: the number it thinks is a 50/50.
- Model O% / Market O%
- The model's chance the player goes over the book's line, next to the books' combined chance with the vig removed. The marker on the bar is the market.
- Model vs market
- The gap between the two. Teal means the model is higher on the over; purple means it is higher on the under. Shaded cells are gaps of 5 points or more, the spots worth a closer look.
- Over line L5 / L10 / Szn
- How often the player cleared this exact line in his last 5 games, last 10, and this season.
4. Open a row for the full matchup
Click any prop to see the player's last 10 games against the line (labeled by week and opponent, with this season and last season split), his averages this season, what the opponent allows to his position, the coverage matchup, how he has done against defenses of the same type, and each adjustment the model applied.
5. Check Top Leans
Top Leans lists the biggest model-vs-market gaps across the whole slate, on the side the model favors. Each lean is checked against five pieces of evidence: the last-10 hit rate, the last 3 games (which catches recent role changes), this season's average against the line, what the opponent allows, and the game script (NFL) or pace (NBA). A check mark means that piece of evidence supports the lean; an X means it points the other way. Rank by how much evidence agrees, by the size of the gap, or by the model's probability.
It's a shortlist for research, not a list of picks. Gaps of 15 points or more are flagged because they usually mean the books are reacting to news the model can't see, like an injury, so check before you act.
How the model works
What it doesn't know
Injuries, inactives, weather, and depth chart changes are not in the model. Always check the news before game time.